CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 13 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 13 backtest · ACC · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–275%
ATS vs close
3–4 · 1P43%
Model margin MAE
19.6
Market margin MAE
16.8
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Syracuse @ Notre DameFinal 7–70
Model
pred Notre Dame 26.5 · actual Notre Dame 63
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +36.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 36.5 · mkt 26.5 · mkt closer
Delaware @ Wake ForestFinal 14–52
Model
pred Wake Forest 17.8 · actual Wake Forest 38
winner Wake Forest ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest -17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.2 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Pittsburgh @ Georgia TechFinal 42–28
Model
pred Georgia Tech 4.1 · actual Pittsburgh 14
winner Georgia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.1 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Louisville @ SMUFinal 6–38
Model
pred SMU 3.1 · actual SMU 32
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisville +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.9 · mkt 28.0 · mkt closer
Florida State @ NC StateFinal 11–21
Model
pred NC State 0.2 · actual NC State 10
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.8 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Duke @ North CarolinaFinal 32–25
Model
pred Duke 3.1 · actual Duke 7
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina +7.0Push
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Miami @ Virginia TechFinal 34–17
Model
pred Miami 7.0 · actual Miami 17
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
California @ StanfordFinal 10–31
Model
pred California 8.0 · actual Stanford 21
winner California ✗
ATS vs close
leaned California -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.0 · mkt 25.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.