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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 12 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · ACC · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–271%
ATS vs close
4–357%
Model margin MAE
14.5
Market margin MAE
12.1
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
NC State @ MiamiFinal 7–41
Model
pred Miami 13.5 · actual Miami 34
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.5 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
North Carolina @ Wake ForestFinal 12–28
Model
pred Wake Forest 4.2 · actual Wake Forest 16
winner Wake Forest ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Virginia @ DukeFinal 34–17
Model
pred Duke 0.1 · actual Virginia 17
winner Duke ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.1 · mkt 22.5 · closer
Virginia Tech @ Florida StateFinal 14–34
Model
pred Virginia Tech 4.5 · actual Florida State 20
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.5 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
Clemson @ LouisvilleFinal 20–19
Model
pred Clemson 5.1 · actual Clemson 1
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ PittsburghFinal 37–15
Model
pred Notre Dame 8.3 · actual Notre Dame 22
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Tech @ Boston CollegeFinal 36–34
Model
pred Georgia Tech 11.5 · actual Georgia Tech 2
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.5 · mkt 14.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.