CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 11 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · ACC · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–271%
ATS vs close
6–186%
Model margin MAE
10.2
Market margin MAE
12.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Syracuse @ MiamiFinal 10–38
Model
pred Miami 18.3 · actual Miami 28
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +28.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
California @ LouisvilleFinal 29–26
Model
pred Louisville 12.6 · actual California 3
winner Louisville ✗
ATS vs close
leaned California +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.6 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Wake Forest @ VirginiaFinal 16–9
Model
pred Virginia 9.6 · actual Wake Forest 7
winner Virginia ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.6 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Florida State @ ClemsonFinal 10–24
Model
pred Clemson 8.6 · actual Clemson 14
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.4 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Duke @ UConnFinal 34–37
Model
pred UConn 7.5 · actual UConn 3
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Stanford @ North CarolinaFinal 15–20
Model
pred North Carolina 5.5 · actual North Carolina 5
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 3.5 · closer
SMU @ Boston CollegeFinal 45–13
Model
pred SMU 13.0 · actual SMU 32
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.0 · mkt 21.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.