CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 1 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · ACC · 12 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–558%
ATS vs close
4–833%
Model margin MAE
15.1
Market margin MAE
13.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kennesaw State @ Wake ForestFinal 9–10
Model
pred Wake Forest 18.8 · actual Wake Forest 1
winner Wake Forest ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest -18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Syracuse @ TennesseeFinal 26–45
Model
pred Tennessee 16.3 · actual Tennessee 19
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee -13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.7 · mkt 5.5 · closer
East Carolina @ NC StateFinal 17–24
Model
pred NC State 12.9 · actual NC State 7
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Virginia Tech @ South CarolinaFinal 11–24
Model
pred South Carolina 8.8 · actual South Carolina 13
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 5.5 · closer
LSU @ ClemsonFinal 17–10
Model
pred Clemson 4.3 · actual LSU 7
winner Clemson ✗
ATS vs close
leaned LSU +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.3 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Georgia Tech @ ColoradoFinal 27–20
Model
pred Colorado 2.9 · actual Georgia Tech 7
winner Colorado ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Coastal Carolina @ VirginiaFinal 7–48
Model
pred Virginia 2.6 · actual Virginia 41
winner Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 38.4 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
Stanford @ Hawai'iFinal 20–23
Model
pred Hawai'i 1.3 · actual Hawai'i 3
winner Hawai'i ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
California @ Oregon StateFinal 34–15
Model
pred Oregon State 1.0 · actual California 19
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.0 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
TCU @ North CarolinaFinal 48–14
Model
pred TCU 3.2 · actual TCU 34
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.8 · mkt 30.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ MiamiFinal 24–27
Model
pred Notre Dame 5.3 · actual Miami 3
winner Notre Dame ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Alabama @ Florida StateFinal 17–31
Model
pred Alabama 16.1 · actual Florida State 14
winner Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.1 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.