CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 9 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · ACC · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–188%
ATS vs close
6–1 · 1P86%
Model margin MAE
12.8
Market margin MAE
11.9
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Florida State @ MiamiFinal 14–36
Model
pred Miami 15.9 · actual Miami 22
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida State +22.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Tech @ Virginia TechFinal 6–21
Model
pred Virginia Tech 11.9 · actual Virginia Tech 15
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech -11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Syracuse @ PittsburghFinal 13–41
Model
pred Pittsburgh 7.4 · actual Pittsburgh 28
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 23.0 · closer
Oregon State @ CaliforniaFinal 7–44
Model
pred California 4.4 · actual California 37
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.6 · mkt 24.0 · mkt closer
Wake Forest @ StanfordFinal 27–24
Model
pred Stanford 2.7 · actual Wake Forest 3
winner Stanford ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +3.0Push
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
North Carolina @ VirginiaFinal 41–14
Model
pred North Carolina 2.4 · actual North Carolina 27
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.6 · mkt 30.5 · closer
Louisville @ Boston CollegeFinal 31–27
Model
pred Louisville 5.4 · actual Louisville 4
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 3.0 · closer
SMU @ DukeFinal 28–27
Model
pred SMU 9.0 · actual SMU 1
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 10.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.