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2024 · Week 8 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · ACC · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–275%
ATS vs close
6–275%
Model margin MAE
6.2
Market margin MAE
6.4
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Virginia @ ClemsonFinal 31–48
Model
pred Clemson 19.8 · actual Clemson 17
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia +20.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.8 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Boston College @ Virginia TechFinal 21–42
Model
pred Virginia Tech 8.1 · actual Virginia Tech 21
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.9 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
NC State @ CaliforniaFinal 24–23
Model
pred California 7.2 · actual NC State 1
winner California ✗
ATS vs close
leaned NC State +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Florida State @ DukeFinal 16–23
Model
pred Duke 6.9 · actual Duke 7
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Wake Forest @ UConnFinal 23–20
Model
pred UConn 4.9 · actual Wake Forest 3
winner UConn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UConn +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Miami @ LouisvilleFinal 52–45
Model
pred Miami 7.8 · actual Miami 7
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 2.5 · closer
SMU @ StanfordFinal 40–10
Model
pred SMU 20.8 · actual SMU 30
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.2 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Notre Dame @ Georgia TechFinal 31–13
Model
pred Notre Dame 25.4 · actual Notre Dame 18
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.