CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 3 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · ACC · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
9–190%
ATS vs close
5–550%
Model margin MAE
13.5
Market margin MAE
11.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Louisiana Tech @ NC StateFinal 20–30
Model
pred NC State 29.2 · actual NC State 10
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State -20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.2 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
UConn @ DukeFinal 21–26
Model
pred Duke 27.5 · actual Duke 5
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke -17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.5 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Boston College @ MissouriFinal 21–27
Model
pred Missouri 27.3 · actual Missouri 6
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.3 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Ball State @ MiamiFinal 0–62
Model
pred Miami 26.3 · actual Miami 62
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +36.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 35.7 · mkt 25.5 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ CaliforniaFinal 10–31
Model
pred California 21.5 · actual California 21
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California -18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 2.5 · closer
Memphis @ Florida StateFinal 20–12
Model
pred Florida State 6.3 · actual Memphis 8
winner Florida State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 15.0 · closer
West Virginia @ PittsburghFinal 34–38
Model
pred Pittsburgh 6.2 · actual Pittsburgh 4
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.2 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Virginia Tech @ Old DominionFinal 37–17
Model
pred Virginia Tech 14.0 · actual Virginia Tech 20
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.0 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Maryland @ VirginiaFinal 27–13
Model
pred Maryland 14.8 · actual Maryland 14
winner Maryland ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Ole Miss @ Wake ForestFinal 40–6
Model
pred Ole Miss 21.3 · actual Ole Miss 34
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 13.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.