CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 2 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · ACC · 11 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–464%
ATS vs close
5–5 · 1P50%
Model margin MAE
12.4
Market margin MAE
11.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Charlotte @ North CarolinaFinal 20–38
Model
pred North Carolina 27.5 · actual North Carolina 18
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -21.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.5 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
App State @ ClemsonFinal 20–66
Model
pred Clemson 21.4 · actual Clemson 46
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.6 · mkt 29.5 · closer
Marshall @ Virginia TechFinal 14–31
Model
pred Virginia Tech 20.1 · actual Virginia Tech 17
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Jacksonville State @ LouisvilleFinal 14–49
Model
pred Louisville 16.8 · actual Louisville 35
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +29.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
BYU @ SMUFinal 18–15
Model
pred SMU 15.3 · actual BYU 3
winner SMU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
California @ AuburnFinal 21–14
Model
pred Auburn 9.1 · actual California 7
winner Auburn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned California +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.1 · mkt 19.5 · closer
Pittsburgh @ CincinnatiFinal 28–27
Model
pred Cincinnati 5.2 · actual Pittsburgh 1
winner Cincinnati ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati -2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.2 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Virginia @ Wake ForestFinal 31–30
Model
pred Wake Forest 3.7 · actual Virginia 1
winner Wake Forest ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest +1.0Push
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Georgia Tech @ SyracuseFinal 28–31
Model
pred Syracuse 1.9 · actual Syracuse 3
winner Syracuse ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Duke @ NorthwesternFinal 26–20
Model
pred Duke 5.6 · actual Duke 6
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Tennessee @ NC StateFinal 51–10
Model
pred Tennessee 6.5 · actual Tennessee 41
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.5 · mkt 31.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.