CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 15 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market

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Week 15 backtest · ACC · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened

Straight up

1–0100%

ATS vs close

1–0100%

Model margin MAE

1.1

Market margin MAE

5.5

→ model's margins were closer than the market

Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up

Clemson @ SMUFinal 34–31

Model

pred Clemson 1.9 · actual Clemson 3

winner Clemson ✓

ATS vs close

leaned Clemson +2.5Cover ✓

margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 5.5 · closer

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.