CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 14 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · ACC · 11 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–373%
ATS vs close
5–645%
Model margin MAE
13.1
Market margin MAE
10.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
South Carolina @ ClemsonFinal 17–14
Model
pred Clemson 15.2 · actual South Carolina 3
winner Clemson ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Tech @ GeorgiaFinal 42–44
Model
pred Georgia 15.0 · actual Georgia 2
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Virginia @ Virginia TechFinal 17–37
Model
pred Virginia Tech 13.7 · actual Virginia Tech 20
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 15.5 · closer
NC State @ North CarolinaFinal 35–30
Model
pred North Carolina 10.0 · actual NC State 5
winner North Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.0 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
California @ SMUFinal 6–38
Model
pred SMU 8.5 · actual SMU 32
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.5 · mkt 19.5 · mkt closer
Pittsburgh @ Boston CollegeFinal 23–34
Model
pred Boston College 7.4 · actual Boston College 11
winner Boston College ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Stanford @ San José StateFinal 31–34
Model
pred San José State 4.3 · actual San José State 3
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Louisville @ KentuckyFinal 41–14
Model
pred Louisville 0.6 · actual Louisville 27
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.4 · mkt 23.0 · mkt closer
Florida @ Florida StateFinal 31–11
Model
pred Florida 7.1 · actual Florida 20
winner Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida State +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.9 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Miami @ SyracuseFinal 38–42
Model
pred Miami 12.4 · actual Syracuse 4
winner Miami ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Miami -12.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.4 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Duke @ Wake ForestFinal 23–17
Model
pred Duke 13.4 · actual Duke 6
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.