CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 13 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · ACC · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–275%
ATS vs close
3–538%
Model margin MAE
12.7
Market margin MAE
11.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Wake Forest @ MiamiFinal 14–42
Model
pred Miami 18.3 · actual Miami 28
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest +23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Stanford @ CaliforniaFinal 21–24
Model
pred California 15.8 · actual California 3
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California -15.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
NC State @ Georgia TechFinal 29–30
Model
pred Georgia Tech 12.9 · actual Georgia Tech 1
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.9 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
UConn @ SyracuseFinal 24–31
Model
pred Syracuse 7.6 · actual Syracuse 7
winner Syracuse ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Pittsburgh @ LouisvilleFinal 9–37
Model
pred Louisville 3.0 · actual Louisville 28
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.0 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Virginia Tech @ DukeFinal 28–31
Model
pred Virginia Tech 0.3 · actual Duke 3
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 5.5 · closer
North Carolina @ Boston CollegeFinal 21–41
Model
pred North Carolina 9.2 · actual Boston College 20
winner North Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.2 · mkt 22.0 · mkt closer
SMU @ VirginiaFinal 33–7
Model
pred SMU 17.0 · actual SMU 26
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.0 · mkt 15.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.