CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 12 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · ACC · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–267%
ATS vs close
4–267%
Model margin MAE
9.8
Market margin MAE
10.6
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Virginia @ Notre DameFinal 14–35
Model
pred Notre Dame 20.2 · actual Notre Dame 21
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Boston College @ SMUFinal 28–38
Model
pred SMU 13.5 · actual SMU 10
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +19.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Wake Forest @ North CarolinaFinal 24–31
Model
pred North Carolina 10.8 · actual North Carolina 7
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Syracuse @ CaliforniaFinal 33–25
Model
pred California 10.0 · actual Syracuse 8
winner California ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.0 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Louisville @ StanfordFinal 35–38
Model
pred Louisville 16.7 · actual Stanford 3
winner Louisville ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.7 · mkt 24.0 · closer
Clemson @ PittsburghFinal 24–20
Model
pred Clemson 16.9 · actual Clemson 4
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -12.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.9 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.