CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 1 · ACC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · ACC · 11 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–464%
ATS vs close
5–645%
Model margin MAE
14.0
Market margin MAE
13.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ PittsburghFinal 24–55
Model
pred Pittsburgh 25.1 · actual Pittsburgh 31
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Georgia State @ Georgia TechFinal 12–35
Model
pred Georgia Tech 18.9 · actual Georgia Tech 23
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Boston College @ Florida StateFinal 28–13
Model
pred Florida State 14.4 · actual Boston College 15
winner Florida State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.4 · mkt 31.5 · closer
Ohio @ SyracuseFinal 22–38
Model
pred Syracuse 9.6 · actual Syracuse 16
winner Syracuse ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Clemson @ GeorgiaFinal 3–34
Model
pred Georgia 8.1 · actual Georgia 31
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.9 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Miami @ FloridaFinal 41–17
Model
pred Florida 1.4 · actual Miami 24
winner Florida ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.4 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
North Carolina @ MinnesotaFinal 19–17
Model
pred North Carolina 6.1 · actual North Carolina 2
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
TCU @ StanfordFinal 34–27
Model
pred TCU 8.7 · actual TCU 7
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Virginia Tech @ VanderbiltFinal 27–34
Model
pred Virginia Tech 13.8 · actual Vanderbilt 7
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.8 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Florida State @ Georgia TechFinal 21–24
Model
pred Florida State 14.1 · actual Georgia Tech 3
winner Florida State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida State -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.1 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
SMU @ NevadaFinal 29–24
Model
pred SMU 20.9 · actual SMU 5
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.9 · mkt 22.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.